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HIRI’s October 2026 economic update says rolling 12-month sales at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers reached $520.5 billion in August, the highest level in the 25 months tracked. The report also records a 6.86% 30-year mortgage rate in September, falling consumer confidence and continuing contractor job disruptions.
The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) reported that rolling 12-month sales at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers reached $520.5 billion in August 2026, the highest reading in the 25 months tracked. Its October economic update also points to rising borrowing costs, weaker consumer confidence and persistent challenges for contractors seeking work and keeping jobs on schedule.
The report puts the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.86% in September, marking a seventh consecutive monthly increase and its highest level since January 2025. It also says the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.6% to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading in the 25 months covered by the update.
Contractor survey findings show a mixed change in job conditions. Among contractors who reported sales challenges, 45% cited closing new business as a problem, up from 23% in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, 54% postponed or cancelled scheduled jobs in Q3, down from 60% in Q2 but above the 30% reported for the third quarter of 2025.
HIRI describes its monthly Economic & Industry Update as a review of economic, housing-market and home-improvement data, including assessments of how economic indicators may affect the industry. The figures summarized in the report provide a snapshot of sales and operating conditions; they do not, by themselves, establish what caused each change.
Sales Growth Meets Industry Pressures
The figures present a mixed picture for home-improvement businesses. Dealer sales reached the highest level in HIRI’s 25-month tracking period, but that measure covers rolling 12-month sales and does not show whether sales rose in August alone or how individual retailers performed.
At the same time, higher mortgage rates may make financing a home purchase or renovation more expensive, while lower consumer confidence can signal caution about spending. Those indicators matter to retailers and contractors, but the update does not quantify their direct effect on sales or project demand.
Contractor reports point to pressure at both the sales and scheduling stages. A larger share of those reporting sales challenges said closing new business was difficult, and more than half postponed or cancelled scheduled jobs in Q3. The decline from Q2 is a partial improvement, but the Q3 rate remains well above the level reported a year earlier.
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How the Measures Compare
The report’s sales figure is a rolling 12-month total for building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers, measured in August 2026. HIRI says it was the highest level in the 25 months tracked. It is not a standalone monthly sales figure, and the source summary does not provide a year-over-year growth rate or inflation adjustment.
The mortgage-rate comparison is a monthly sequence: September’s 6.86% rate followed six other monthly increases and was the highest since January 2025. Consumer confidence is reported as a 7.6% decline in September to 81.9, while the contractor job figures compare Q3 2026 with Q2 2026 and Q3 2025.
HIRI released the update on November 4, 2026. The source summary highlights five findings and says the full report is available to HIRI members; it does not include detailed methodology or breakdowns by region, company size or project type.
“The October 2026 HIRI Economic & Industry Update”
— Home Improvement Research Institute
What the Summary Leaves Open
The published summary does not explain why sales reached the reported level, whether the total reflects price changes as well as purchasing volume, or how results varied among dealers. It also does not provide enough information to attribute changes in contractor activity to mortgage rates, consumer confidence or any other single factor.
HIRI’s summary does not state how many contractors took part in the survey or give details about the survey’s method. The contractor percentages should therefore be read as reported survey findings, not as a complete count of all contractors. The source also does not say whether the mortgage-rate rise or confidence decline continued after September.
Further HIRI Data to Watch
The next step for readers seeking fuller detail is the complete October update, which HIRI says is available through membership. That report may provide additional data and analysis beyond the five figures summarized by Hardware Retailing.
Future monthly releases will show whether the sales measure continues to rise and whether mortgage rates, confidence and contractor scheduling change in subsequent reporting periods. The source material gives no date for the next update or forecast for those indicators.
Key Questions
What did HIRI report about dealer sales?
Rolling 12-month sales at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers reached $520.5 billion in August 2026, the highest level in the 25 months tracked.
How high was the 30-year mortgage rate?
HIRI reported a 6.86% rate in September 2026, the seventh consecutive monthly increase and the highest since January 2025.
What contractor challenges did the report identify?
Among contractors reporting sales challenges, 45% cited closing new business, up from 23% in Q2. In Q3, 54% postponed or cancelled scheduled jobs, compared with 60% in Q2 and 30% in Q3 2025.
Did consumer confidence rise or fall?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.6% to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading in the 25 months tracked by the report.
Does the report explain what caused these changes?
The published summary presents the indicators but does not establish that one caused another. It also omits detailed survey methodology and further breakdowns of sales and contractor results.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
